The war that has begun between Iran and Israel could impact India’s oil, trade, stock market, and gold and silver prices. If the war escalates further, the Strait of Hormuz could be closed. This would jeopardize half of India’s monthly oil supply. Furthermore, India’s non-oil exports could also be affected, as more than 10% of India’s exports come from this region. Experts believe that an escalation of the war could lead to a sharp increase in crude oil prices. Oil prices increase, which in turn will impact the stock market. In such circumstances, the market could see significant selling and declines. On the other hand, when global tensions rise, investors tend to look for safe havens. During such times, people prefer to buy gold and silver, which is why their prices are likely to rise. Why is the Strait of Hormuz so important for India? The Strait of Hormuz, located between Iran and Oman, is the world’s most important oil route. India imports most of its crude oil needs from countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE, a significant portion of which comes through this route. According to Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst at Kpler, if Israel attacks Iran’s oil installations or Iran blocks this route, the supply chain will be completely disrupted. This will impact India as well as the global oil market. India imports approximately 2.6 million barrels of crude oil daily through the Hormuz route. According to Kpler data, approximately 50% of India’s total monthly oil imports came through the Hormuz route in January-February. This figure has now increased to 40% in November-December 2025. Sources say that if the Hormuz route is closed, India may consider other options. This includes Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline and the UAE’s Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline. Both pipelines were built to ensure continued oil supply without using the Strait of Hormuz. 10% of India’s non-oil exports are also threatened. Not just oil, India’s trade is also threatened by the war between Iran and Israel. According to a report, more than 10% of India’s total non-oil exports go through the Strait of Hormuz. This includes basmati rice, tea, spices, fresh fruits, vegetables, and engineering goods. Most of the exports to the Middle East (GCC) countries are routed through this route. Closure of the route or increased freight rates will increase costs for Indian exporters and make Indian goods more expensive in the global market. India recently exported approximately $47.6 billion worth of non-oil goods to Gulf countries whose trade depends on the sea routes connected to the Strait of Hormuz. This represents approximately 13.2% of India’s total non-oil exports of $360.2 billion. These figures illustrate the significant impact that disruptions to supplies through these routes could have on India’s trade. Rising crude prices could cause the Indian stock market to fall. Crude oil has always been a sensitive factor for the Indian stock market. If Brent crude prices exceed $80-85 per barrel due to the Iran-Israel tensions, the Indian stock market could see heavy selling. On Friday, Brent crude oil prices rose 2.87% to $72.87 per barrel. Sectors such as paint, tires, aviation, and logistics, which rely on crude oil, will have a direct impact on their margins. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) are already withdrawing funds from the Indian market, and this war could further intensify geopolitical tensions. Gold and silver prices may also rise. During times of uncertainty, investors withdraw money from the equity market and turn to safe investments like gold and silver. Commodity experts believe that the Iran-Israel war could push gold and silver prices to new heights. If the US directly participates in this war, the demand for gold against the dollar will increase further. Both industrial and investment demand for silver is expected to increase, making it a source of better returns for investors in the future. 10 grams of gold is selling for ₹1.59 lakh and silver for ₹2.66 lakh per kg. A day earlier, on Friday (February 27), gold and silver prices had risen. According to the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA), 10 grams of 24-carat gold rose by ₹1,075 to ₹1.59 lakh. Earlier on Thursday, its price was ₹1.58 lakh per 10 grams. Meanwhile, one kilogram of silver rose by ₹6,033 to ₹2.66 lakh. Previously, its price on Thursday was ₹2.61 lakh per kilogram. Fears of inflation due to war: If crude oil becomes more expensive, the possibility of a reduction in petrol and diesel prices in India will be eliminated. Fuel prices will increase transportation costs, which will directly impact the prices of fruits, vegetables, and other essential commodities. This could increase the retail inflation rate. Market experts say the current situation is a wait-and-see situation. The direction of the global market will depend on Israel’s next response. If Israel targets only military bases, the market may recover quickly. However, if oil refineries or the Hormuz Route are targeted, it could signal a long-term economic recession. Learn about the Strait of Hormuz. What is the Strait of Hormuz? The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway that connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and further to the Arabian Sea. Iran is adjacent to its north, and Oman and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are located to its south. All oil-producing countries surround it. Therefore, this waterway supplies oil to the world. The Strait of Hormuz is approximately 167 km long. Both mouths are approximately 50 km wide, while the narrowest part is approximately 33 km wide. A 3 km-wide shipping lane is designated for incoming and outgoing maritime traffic. Why is the Strait of Hormuz so important? According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), approximately 20% of the world’s total petroleum passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Approximately 17.8 million to 20.8 million barrels of crude oil and fuels travel through this route every day. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Iran itself exports 1.7 million barrels of petroleum through this route every day. A US Navy detachment protects commercial ships transiting this route. Besides Iran, other Gulf countries, such as Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, also export most of their oil through this route. Most of this export is destined for Asian countries. In 2022, 82% of the total oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz went to Asian countries. ————————– Read this news too… US-Israel attack Iran, 40 female students killed: Iran also fired missiles at Israel and Dubai, and attacked a US military base in Qatar and the UAE. Israel attacked several cities, including Iran’s capital, Tehran, on Saturday morning. According to the IRNA news agency, 40 female students were killed in southern Iran in these attacks, while 45 were injured. In response, Iran launched retaliatory attacks against Israel. According to media reports, Iran fired approximately 400 missiles in retaliation. Read the full story…
