Voting for 288 assembly seats in Maharashtra and 81 assembly seats in Jharkhand was completed on Wednesday. The results will be declared on November 23, but exit polls came before that. Out of 11 exit polls in Maharashtra, 6 have predicted the formation of a BJP alliance i.e. Mahayuti government. The remaining 4 exit polls have said that the Congress alliance i.e. Mahavikas Aghadi will get a majority. One has a hung assembly. 8 exit polls came in Jharkhand. Out of these, 4 have predicted the formation of a BJP alliance government, while 2 have predicted the formation of an All India Alliance government. The remaining 2 exit polls have predicted a hung assembly. See the exit poll agencies and the figures released by them in the table below. The election schedule in Maharashtra and Jharkhand was announced on October 15. Voting took place in 2 phases on 81 seats in Jharkhand. Voting took place on 43 seats in the first phase on November 13 and on 38 seats in the second phase on November 20. Voting was held on November 20 in a single phase on all 288 seats of Maharashtra. Two opinion polls were released before the elections. Difference between exit poll and opinion poll
Opinion poll and exit poll are election surveys. Opinion poll is done before the elections. Its results are also released before the elections. All people are included in it. This means that it is not necessary that the person answering the survey questions is a voter. In this survey, the mood of the public is estimated on the basis of different issues. Exit poll is done during the elections. Its results are released after the voting of all the phases is over. Officials of exit poll agencies are present at the polling stations on the day of voting. After voting, they ask questions related to the elections from the voters. A report is prepared on the basis of the answers of the voters. The report is assessed, which shows which way the voters are more inclined. After this, the results are estimated. 2 cartoons by Bhaskar cartoonist Sandeep Pal on exit polls… Political equation of Maharashtra Exit polls of the last 3 assembly elections in Maharashtra… In 2019, the BJP-Shiv Sena (undivided) alliance got majority in Maharashtra. Compared to 2014, both the seats and vote share of the alliance fell. The alliance got 161 seats and the vote share was 42%. In 2014, the same alliance got 185 seats, in which BJP had 122 and Shiv Sena had 63 seats. The vote share was 47.6%. Rift in Shiv Sena-BJP, Shinde-Ajit’s rebellion, Maharashtra’s political equation changed in 5 years 2019: Uddhav Thackeray changed sides after the results and became CM
Shiv Sena and BJP came closer in 1984. In 2014, there was a rift in this alliance for some time. However, both the parties fought and won the 2019 assembly elections together. After this, there were differences between the two parties. Uddhav Thackeray became CM by taking oath as Chief Minister on 28 November 2019. The Uddhav government completed two and a half years going through many ups and downs. 2022: Eknath Shinde’s rebellion and Shiv Sena split into two parts
In 2019, Uddhav made Urban Development Minister and Shiv Sena leader Eknath Shinde the leader of the legislative party in the state government. In May 2022, Shinde rebelled with 39 MLAs. After the political drama, Uddhav resigned. Within 24 hours, Shinde took oath as CM and Devendra Fadnavis as Deputy CM. 2023: Ajit Pawar rebelled, NCP broke up
On the 25th foundation day of NCP on June 10, 2023, Sharad Pawar announced the names of two working presidents of the party, Praful Patel and Supriya Sule. On getting indications of being sidelined in NCP, Ajit Pawar joined Mahayuti with 41 MLAs on 2 July 2023 and became Deputy CM in Shinde government. MVA to benefit in 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Mahayuti to lose Based on Lok Sabha elections, MVA to have majority in Assembly, Congress to lead If Mahayuti wins, Shinde-Fadnavis to be CM face, three names ahead in MVA Political equation of Jharkhand Exit poll of Jharkhand Assembly Elections 2019, 2 out of 3 correct Hemant took oath as CM twice in 5 years, Champai joins BJP In 2019, JMM, Congress and RJD together secured 47 seats and formed the government. Hemant was arrested in a land scam on 31 January. In his place, JMM’s Champai Soren was made CM on 2 February. To prevent the coalition government from falling, 37 MLAs of JMM-Congress were shifted to Hyderabad. After being in jail for 5 months, Hemant got bail. Champai resigned on 3 July. On 4 July, Hemant took oath as Jharkhand CM for the third time. On 28 May, Champai resigned from JMM accusing the Hemant government of spying on him. On 30 May, Champai joined BJP.
