The stock market is expected to fluctuate this week. The market will keep an eye on factors ranging from retail and wholesale inflation data to foreign investment. On Friday, the Monetary Policy Committee kept the repo rate unchanged, but reduced the CRR by 0.5%, its effect can also be seen on the market this week. According to Harshub Mahesh Shah, founder of Wealth View Analytics, the main direction of the market is negative right now. The market may see a decline this week. At the same time, Siddharth Khemka, Head of Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, expects the market to remain bullish due to the CRR cut and the return of FIIs. 5 factors that will determine the market movement this week…
1. Retail inflation: Inflation expected to fall in November Inflation figures for the month of November will be released on December 12. Most economists expect inflation to fall in November. Retail inflation rose to 6.21% in October due to the cost of food items. This is the highest level of inflation in 14 months. Inflation rate was 6.83% in August 2023. In September also, due to the cost of vegetables, this rate reached 5.49%. Food items contribute about 50% to the inflation basket. Its inflation increased from 9.24% to 10.87% on a month-on-month basis. Rural inflation increased from 5.87% to 6.68% and urban inflation increased from 5.05% to 5.62%. 2. Industrial production: Data will be announced on December 12 Apart from inflation, industrial and manufacturing production data for October will also be announced on December 12. At the same time, bank loan and deposit growth for the fortnight ending on November 29 as well as foreign exchange reserves data for the week ending on December 6 will be released on December 13. 3. US inflation: likely to remain around 2.6% Investors will also keep an eye on the US inflation data for the month of November. According to economists, the inflation rate is likely to remain around 2.6%. Inflation data is also important because the Federal Reserve is meeting on 17-18 December. The reduction in interest rates will depend on the inflation data. 4. FII’s and DII’s: Foreign investors bought shares worth ?11,934 crore. For the first time since mid-September, there was a positive change in FII flow on a weekly basis. Foreign institutional investors (FII’s) have made net purchases of Rs 11,934 crore in the cash segment so far in December, while selling of Rs 1.6 lakh crore was done in October-November. At the same time, domestic institutional investors (DII’s) bought shares worth Rs 1,792 crore in December. In the last two months, they made net purchases of Rs 1.51 lakh crore. Overall, they have remained buyers on a monthly basis since August 2023. 5. IPOs and Listings: 6 issues opening in mainboard segment Five mainboard IPOs as well as six issues in the SME segment are set to open for subscription. The IPOs of Vishal Mega Mart, Sai Life Sciences and Mobikwik will open on December 11, while Rekha Jhunjhunwala-backed Inventurus Knowledge Solutions will open its IPO on December 12. The Gemological Institute IPO is coming on December 13. In the SME segment, IPOs of Dhanlaxmi Crop Science, Jungle Camps India, Toss The Coin, Purple United Sales, Supreme Facility Management and Yash Highvoltage will open. Technical View: Formation of Higher Highs-Lower Lows Positive Sign Nifty continued to form higher highs-lower lows for the second consecutive week, which is a positive sign. Now, the index has to cross the 24,700-24,800 zone to move further towards the 25,000-25,200 level, while the immediate support is at 24,500. After this, there is support at 24,350. Sensex closed with a gain of 1907 points last week Sensex saw a gain of 1907 points last week. On December 6, the last trading day of the week, the stock market traded flat. Sensex closed at 81,709 with a decline of 56 points. Nifty also fell by 30 points, it closed at 24,677. At the same time, BSE Smallcap closed at 57,050 with a gain of 342 points. Out of 30 Sensex stocks, 17 declined and 13 rose. Out of 50 Nifty stocks, 32 declined and 18 rose. Among the NSE sectoral indices, the metal sector closed with the highest gain of 1.23%.
