Voting has been completed on 90-90 assembly seats of Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir. Counting of votes will be done on 8 October. Before that exit polls and based on that poll of polls. 46 seats are required to form government in both the states. Apart from Bhaskar Reporters Survey in Haryana, 12 survey agencies have conducted exit polls. Apart from Bhaskar Reporters, 9 agencies have conducted exit polls in Jammu and Kashmir too. All these have been combined to calculate poll of polls. According to poll of polls, Congress government is seen forming in 12 surveys of Haryana. The party is expected to get 56 seats. BJP may be limited to 27 seats, far away from majority. According to poll of polls, in 10 polls of Jammu and Kashmir, 5 are showing National Conference-Congress alliance forming government, while in 5 it is seen 10 to 15 seats away from majority. The party is expected to get 40 seats. BJP may get 30 seats. PDP and others will get 10 seats each. Poll of polls of Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir, 2 reporters of Bhaskar’s poll… Haryana: Chances of Congress government after 10 years Bhaskar reporters reached all 90 assembly seats of Haryana. They understood the direction of the wind by talking to common people, political experts and senior journalists. From this conversation, it was understood that Congress will become the largest party in Haryana and it can also form the government on its own strength. Know the complete exit poll… Jammu & Kashmir: Nobody will get majority, Mehbooba can become the kingmaker Bhaskar reporters went to all 90 assembly seats of Jammu & Kashmir and understood the direction of the wind. During the election, we talked to common people, political experts, senior journalists and political parties. From this, it was understood that even after 10 years, a party or alliance does not seem to get the 46 seats required for majority in Jammu & Kashmir. Know the complete exit poll… 2 opinion polls were also conducted: Hung assembly in Haryana, Congress-NC in Jammu and Kashmir Only two agencies had conducted opinion polls before the elections. In Haryana, Times Now-Matrix opinion poll suggests a hung assembly. According to Lokpol opinion survey in Jammu and Kashmir, Congress and NC government seems to be formed. Difference between exit poll and opinion poll
Opinion poll and exit poll are election surveys. Opinion polls are conducted before the elections. Its results are also released before the elections. All people are included in it. It does not mean that the person answering the survey questions is a voter. In this survey, the mood of the public is estimated on the basis of different issues. Exit polls are conducted during elections. Its results are released after the voting of all phases is over. Officials of exit poll agencies are present at the polling booths on the day of voting. They ask questions related to the election from the voters after voting. A report is prepared based on the voters’ answers. The report is assessed to find out which way the voters are more inclined. After this, the results are predicted. Exit polls of the last 3 assembly elections in Haryana… Jat vote bank divided in 2019, Congress gained 17 seats
Haryana has 22.2% Jat voters. They have influence on more than 40 out of 90 assembly seats in the state. In the 2014 assembly elections, Jats voted for BJP in large numbers. Due to this, BJP won a majority with 47 seats and Congress was out of power after 10 years. However, in 2019, Jats turned against BJP. Its effect was seen on the result. BJP came down from 47 to 40 seats. BJP formed the government with JJP and 7 independent MLAs. Congress gained 17 seats. The party had won 15 seats in 2014. In 2019, this figure became 31. Loss to BJP, benefit to Congress in 2024 Lok Sabha elections Close contest between BJP and Congress on the basis of Lok Sabha elections If Congress wins, then 4 faces including Hooda and Shailja in the race to become CM, Saini is the only CM face from BJP If no one gets majority, then smaller parties will be kingmakers 2 exit polls of 2014 assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir, prediction of hung assembly proved correct Assembly elections were held in Jammu and Kashmir after 10 years. After the hung assembly in 2014, BJP and PDP formed a coalition government. The government fell after the coalition broke in 2018. After this, Governor’s rule was in place in the state for 6 months (as per the Jammu and Kashmir Constitution at that time). After this, President’s rule came into force. 2019 Lok Sabha elections were held amidst President’s rule, in which BJP returned to power at the Centre with a majority. After this, on 5 August 2019, the BJP government abolished Article 370 and divided the state into two union territories (Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh). Assembly elections were held in Jammu and Kashmir after 10 years in 2024. Based on the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Congress and National Conference are close to majority. 2 faces in the race for Chief Minister in Jammu and Kashmir If the assembly remains hung, PDP and independents will be kingmakers
908 candidates were in the fray in the voting for 90 seats of the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly. Of these, 365 were independents. This is the second largest number of independents in any assembly election in Jammu and Kashmir from 1967 to 2024. PDP, which formed the government with BJP in the last assembly elections 2014, did not contest all 90 seats this time. In the event of a hung assembly, PDP and independent MLAs can prove to be kingmakers. Engineer Rashid’s party can also be in the role of forming the government.
